Last weekend, I learned  that if you're not Tiger Woods or Jack Nicklaus and you want to play golf at St. Andrew's, the famous Scottish destination where golf is said to have been invented, you have to show proof that your handicap is 24 or better.  Among other things, this basically means they want data that suggests you're not coming there to tear up the course or take a fortnight to get through it.  This is not only a way to weed out more serious players from those who really just want to say they've been to Golf Mecca.  It's an interesting insight into one of the many ways that organizations use data to determine who's in and who's out, whom they're trying to serve and whom they're not, since they can't meet the full demand for access for all those who are willing to pay for the privilege.

Sound familiar?  Of course, independent schools are no different in establishing tests, interviews, and other methods to create some measure of a student's "readiness" to benefit from the education they have to offer.  It's equally important to measure and constantly monitor data and information about the conditions and trends that might affect how the school is able to achieve the kind of demand it wants in order to stay fully enrolled.  According to Donna Orem, vice president for strategic initiatives at NAIS, doing even a little research "is like going on a journey:  if you don't take the time to sketch out the map, you might end up somewhere you don't want to be."

She encourages us that this research can also help schools notice strange imbalances in population, as a result of demographic shifts and, if balance is what you seek, to plan accordingly.  For example, if income demographics have changed, and you notice families are growing most at the $200K+ level, and they are more likely to choose a high-quality public school option instead, what will that say about your strategies to fill seats among lower- or middle-income families?  Similarly, getting a snapshot of changes in gender/racial/ethnic balance, proportions of families with school-age children by income, and the number of families choosing private or public schools, can help you plot mid- and long-term actions for rethinking your school's posture in extending access and affordability that are data-informed, not just anecdotal or based solely on the experience of today.

Here's a simple look at what this might mean.  Let's look at the Richmond, Virginia and Los Angeles, California metropolitan areas, using data from the NAIS Demographics Center.  Even a cursory view of just a few of the variables provided in the Detailed Reports show very different realities that the next five years could bring for schools in these cities.

Making plans for growth, adjusting for competition, targeting families at certain income levels, and appealing to the non-White population require decidedly different approaches  based on where you are and what's happening around you.  Just a quick read yields a few critical considerations for schools:

1.       In Richmond, population growth among school-age children is expected to be relatively good, with a projected preference for private school enrollment greater than for public schools.  Not so in Los Angeles, where a decline in the age group could signal an increased competitive environment for students, especially given the slightly larger projected  increase in public school enrollment.

2.       In both locales, among all households with children, those with the youngest children and earning $125,000 to $150,000 in income are the fastest growing.  If you're running a pre-school program, this bodes well in the short-term.  If you're running a high school, it'll take time to see that ripple effect and you have to work to keep those families interested in the value of long-term investment in private school. 

3.       Also, it's interesting to note that for Richmond, projected growth in median and average incomes are about four percentage points lower than the projections for L.A.  Families there might be less able to keep pace with tuition increases that are greater than inflation than families in L.A. may be.  You'll have to look at your tuition increases for the past few years.  If they continue at that rate, think about whether they will outpace the predicted change in family incomes.

I like to use data as one input when asking questions about the environment around me.  Think about the questions you'd like to know the answers to regarding your enrollment and affordability positioning and use easily accessible demographic data to begin a conversation about them.  Here's a set of questions to get you started:

About school-age population trending (among the most important factors in affecting independent school enrollment):  How is the school-age population predicted to change in the next few years?  How does that compare to the past decade?  What does that suggest about where we might experience successes and challenges in filling seats at particularly grades or divisions?  How is the choice of private versus public enrollment changing?  What do we do to reinforce or ensure that families increasingly choose our school over someone else's?

About gender, race and ethnicity trending: How are the gender and race/ethnicity balances shifting, if at all? How does that compare to the past decade? How is growth or stability in the school-age population being affected by the change in ethnic and racial diversity?  Does our programmatic, staff, and/or student diversity need to change to reflect this shifting balance to improve or hold enrollment?

About income distribution trending:  How are income patterns changing? Does the trend in income growth match, exceed, or lag behind our projected tuition change?  How does that differ for different income ranges?  What does it suggest about families' ability to meet our changing price tag?  Do we expect that enough full-paying families will be part of our pool of prospects?  Does our approach to or funding for financial aid programs need to change to improve our affordability?

If you subscribed to SSS this year by July 31, you'll get a metropolitan area report based on your school's location that will provide data to help address questions like these and many more (NAIS members can also access the Demographics Center at www.nais.org/go/demographics). Study the data carefully, relate what you see to financial aid and enrollment strategies currently in place to see what adjustments might be necessary moving forward.  Use these snapshots to step out of what might be traditional comfort zones. Consider new methods to reach new populations or extend new strategies  to increase affordability.  Examine how providing financial aid does or does not mesh with your recruitment needs as average income and preferences for how to spend it change over time.

I'd like to hear about the steps you've taken to study these kinds of data, what you've learned from it, and how you may have adapted or adopted strategies for financial aid or enrollment as a result.  Share your thoughts and experiences by adding a comment below.

First one to respond should treat him/herself to a round of golf at St. Andrews.